Fantasy Basketball Draft Analysis '07

JCP here,

Since Yahoo has such a lame character limit on all inputs including the message board, I decided to utilize my blog for my annual draft analysis. We had a good turnout for our live draft, which is always one of the highlights of the fantasy season.

I think this was the best ever overall live draft in our ongoing "Far West Classic" league. We only had one autodrafter that seemed to be using stale prerankings, and every team has a legitimate hope to compete. There are no real stinker picks this year. If anyone else wants to add some analysis of our draft, I'd love to hear it! Let's liven up the message board this year. With so many basketball-educated people in our league, we should be able to have some great discussion/smack-talk.

I'm going to analyze all teams, except my own (per usual), in the order in which I like them following the draft. I guess you could think of these blurbs as "JCP's Preseason Power Rankings" of ya'll...



Enumclaw Equines

Welcome back Alex! A two-time Finalist rejoins us this year after a year off. I really like this draft quite a bit. He played his position well, and several prizes slipped to him in the mid rounds. He'll have to absorb annoying Kobe drama all year, and KB24 is likely to sulk from time to time if he remains in LA (which I expect). Still, Kobe will produce sick scoring stats no matter where he plays. I'm sure we'll see some 50+ point games, and I'm sure they'll happen when Enumclaw plays me (frown).

EE's Highlights: As I declared during the draft, Maggette has "steal of the draft" potential at 78th overall. Sure, he's an injury risk. But in his contract year, this is probably the time he'll play through injuries that kept him on the sidelines in the past. With Brand out of the picture for perhaps the entire season, Maggette is going to be "The Man" in Slipperland. He could push 26ppg this year with his ability to get to the line and convert. I also think that Rasheed Wallace and Brad Miller were great value picks. Both are slimmer and healthier this year, and could see statistical upticks. Ricky Davis will have great all-around stats until he's most likely dealt to a contender this Winter, but EE can enjoy a nice burst out of the gates until then...

EE Lowlights: I have no major concerns with this team.

Oden's Shorter Leg

Interesting Draft. He's loaded with players that stock up "cumulative stats," highlighted by back-to-back picks that landed downright dominant players in the "hard cumulative categories" (Smith, Wallace). He's going to have very inconsistent percentages. I think he'll struggle in those categories, but will destroy some teams that are unlucky enough to face him on the weeks when his streaky shooters are hot.

OSL's Highlights: Iverson at 35 is a steal, he's too explosive to go that late. I don't want him either, but I'd have been forced to take him there, too. Gilbert and Monta are banged up, but in contract years. If they shake off their injuries and get healthy, those will be nice picks.

OSL's Lowlights: I already noted the percentages. Bargnani has a lot of upside, but not enough to warrant a 6th rounder. I would be extremely worried about injuries, overall.

LaBill

What does this name mean? No comprende. I think this is a solid team. Nothing really wows me about it, but as a whole I think it's a really good foundation for this fantasy season. Bibby and Artest will hamper his FG% horribly, but he has the appropriate base to carry those two without dropping the FG% category every week I think...

Bill's Highlights: Nash is the right pick at #7. With Gilbert's gimpy knee and 4-21 FG preseason, I would have even taken the True MVP over Arenas as well... The amazing thing with Nash is his awesome FG% at PG - this should help remedy the pain that Bibby (G-R-O-S-S) will inflict with his week-to-week lowlights. Kaman could be a real steal at 94th overall. "Toxic Tom Petty" should be a lot better this year as he compensates for Brand's missing presence down low for the 'Slips.

Bill's Lowlights: Bibby. Artest. I predict that at least 3 of hist last 5 picks will be on the waiver wire before week 3, but that just means he won't have any trouble figuring out who to get rid of when there's somebody hot to add...

Big Fat Losers

I think he stepped in dog poop the day he signed up and created his team name. Or, maybe he stepped in dog poop and accidentally tracked it into the house... Well, he can stop feeling poopy because this is a good draft. His policy of "marking up guys that JCP loves" paid off, and I think he'll be solid after he makes a few waiver moves.

Poopster's Highlights: Great percentages starting with Yao, the ultimate weapon at center for percentages. He started his process of nabbing guys on my draft board with CP3 at 11. Probably a couple spots too high given the screw in the foot, but I think it will work out. Kevin Martin slid way too far to him at 50, and is another great player for percentages. Corey Brewer with the final pick in the entire draft is an interesting selection that could work out. If he starts in Minny, I bet he sticks with both the T-Wolves and Big Poopster. Waaaaaiiit... I can't end this paragraph without noting his 3rd round selection - Carlos Boozer! The disfunctional pattern of taking total busts in the third is finally broken!

Big Poopy's Lowlights: Whether he intended to or not, he's punting on blocks this year. He'll probably lose the category most weeks this year without major changes. Brand is probably a waste of a pick, but since he got him in the11th it matters not. Krstic is not quite healthy and has Magloire after his minutes, but that was another late pick. I think a couple hot waiver moves and BFL is solid top to bottom.

Espoo Honka Playboyz

I have no idea where he came up with this team name, but I'm kinda feelin' it for some reason. I really have to take my hat off to Forrest for his mastery of the Yahoo prerankings system, as he somehow came out of an autodraft with a team full of his man-crushes. Howard, Aldridge, Andre Miller, Outlaw, Jameer - I would bet he's going to be pretty happy with what the computer did with his prerankings. This is a high risk/reward draft, as my comments will highlight....

Playboy Centerfolds: Dirk is a solid base to build on. I expect the same numbers as usual, as long as #24 doesn't end up in Dallas somehow... I told a friend before the draft that it was a lock that someone would take a huge flyer on Dwight Howard in the early 2nd round. Somehow, I also knew that person in our league would be Forrest. Go figure. Howard is perhaps the most hyped player in both the NBA and Fantasy Basketball right now, and maybe he'll live up to this selection. Aldridge has huge upside, but health problems could continue to hamper him. If he somehow plays 75+ games this year, EHP made a good pick there. AK is a woman, but has enough upside to warrant a look at 57. Again, not a pick I would have made - but a pick that could work out nicely.

The Ugly: There's not much that I'd term ugly here, but I think it's a bad combination with Dirk and Howard as the core of this team. Howard's poor FT% will all but negate the huge wins that Dirk brings here. Dirk has low turnovers for a 1st rounder, but Howard cancels out that gain as well. He has too many Trailblazers, and two of them are bench players. Despite his "potential," Darko smells like the perpetual bust that he's doomed to be, as he can't even beat out Stromile Swift for a starting spot right now...

SalsMyrtlewoodLounge

I think this team has potential, and depth at each position. I dunno though, it just doesn't "wow" me in any way. Similar to LaBill, he played his position and ended up with some nice value picks. While his team doesn't jump off the page at you, I think he's got a reasonable base to start the year.

Lounge VIPs: Butler at 29 was a big steal. Gasol and Joe Johnson are very solid picks. Ginobili is never a favorite of mine, but I think he almost had to take him at #69.

Myrtlewood Pile: I think Kidd is a big risk at 9th overall. Sals was in a tough spot there, but I wouldn't take a 35 year old point guard with shaky knees and a bad back with the 9th overall pick in this draft. I would bet money that Hughes and Herrmann hit the waiver wire very soon. Jamison and Okur both disappear too often for my tastes. Again, I can't call any of these picks bad necessarily. They're just boring.

Mapotufo

Wow! What an interesting draft. This draft has the feel of someone who's been away from Fantasy Basketball for a year! Hehe. Welcome back Mike! I think this team can be good with some work on his part. There's several picks that are bound for the trash pile, but in our league the waiver wire is always a rich resource that can revive a team.

Tofu Done Right: LBJ at #2 is tasty; that's as safe as it gets. LeBron is just a tank. His FT% will be a bummer sometimes, but he'll churn along and carry this team week to week. Jermaine dropped like a rock to #42... He's a boom or bust pick here depending on his health. He's going to torture Mapotofu with his sudden no-shows, but he'll also win weeks for him all by himself when he gets hot. Mapotofu is going to ROCK at 3PTM with Billups and Ray Ray.

Tofu Prepared Wrong: Will Indy suck again this year? Could be ugly for Jermaine, and Tofu, down the stretch of this year if they do... Ben Wallace has fallen so far in fantasy stock that I'd label him a reach at #39. He doesn't produce in rebounds, blocks, and steals the way he did before that big contract, and he'll flat out destroy your FT%. I think his last three, perhaps four picks are waiver fodder before too long.

World B Ranfurly

I'm just not feelin' this team. I'm sure Ben will find a way to make this all work somehow, but I have a lot of questions when it comes to this year's WBR draft. This is a risk/reward team that strays way too far into the "risk" side than I'd be comfortable with.

Ranfurly Highlights: Hmm... if Okafor *somehow* stays healthy this year, he could be nice pick. He's playing for a contract extension, and might outperform his projections if his body doesn't fall apart like it usually does. Ben might have taken Biedrins a bit too soon, but I like his upside this year. Murphy is supposedly a better fit in Indy with their new system this year, so that might end up being decent value at #100 overall.

Ranfurly Lowlights: Baron is way too risky for my tastes at 20th overall. It could work out if Baron stays on the court for 75+ this year, but there was much safer stuff around for WBR in the second round. Vince got his big paycheck, so I fear he might pull a Shaun Alexander this year. I laughed when I saw how ridiculously high Durant was preranked by Yahoo this year. I think 40th overall is still too risky. The expectations placed on him in Seattle are ludicrous, and I think he could really struggle this year. That would mean painful shooting percentages for WBR. Felton is an injury bitch. Marbury is just horrible, and perhaps the dumbest player I've ever heard speak. Dixon and Millsap are waiver material, but Ben will probably hold onto them for 5 weeks just to spite me for pointing it out.

Tarq B Aziz

I vote for you to come up with a new team name this year, Brian. This one is weird, and even mispelled this time. TBA autodrafted, and it feels like his prerankings were done in early September and never updated. There's a ton of "blah" picks on this team that depress me.

TBA Goodies: Rashard is being a total wussbag this preseason, but 28 is still too late for him to have gone. Bell might be nice value in the 9th if Grant Hill doesn't steal too many of his minutes & looks in that high-powered Suns offense.

TBA Baddies: Wade at 8th overall will hurt bad for the first couple months of this year. I hear conflicting reports, but I at least don't expect to see him in November of this year. Battier : blah. Gooden: blah. Collison: BLAH. Mobley: blah, hurt. TBA has a ton of work to do, will he make the changes or just sit back and bore me to death??

Could be our most competitive year yet!

-JCP out