Well, I finally did my fantasy draft for a fantasy football league I do each year with friends and family. I need a spot to post this, so might as well use the ol' Blog
On to the draft analysis. I'll add my thoughts to the insightful analysis posted by Theisman last night. I like to look at the strengths, weaknesses, "biggest steals," and "biggest reaches" of each team. I'm also going to name some of the "biggest steals of the draft" and "biggest reaches of the draft."
Ditka's Mustache:
This is one of the better drafts. I think that Manning is fair game in our league round the 12th draft position, and I can't blame Ditka for selecting him there. He's going to put up numbers every week except the bye, and is one of the least risky picks in the entire draft. Ditka combo'd this extremely low risk pick with a high-upside selection in Reggie Bush. I love these two picks. Bush IS going to be all-world, and a perennial top 5 pick. The question, of course, is if that starts this year or later on down the line... I think he'll definitely be better this year, but I'm not sure if he'll vault into top 5 status until next year perhaps. The potential is there, however, and the Saints are going to be explosive. 12-14th selection seems about right for Bush to me (in our league).
Ditka's Strengths: Manning's solid QB play. Great D/ST in Baltimore, which should give him an advantage in that slot for most weeks. Great depth at running back with a few breakout candidates.
Ditka's Weaknesses: Wide receiver, where he's got several question marks behind Roy Williams. Williams should be great, but Ditka could bleed points at WR in matchups should Williams get hurt. Still, he should be able to find help from the WW at receiver, as it's the easiest position to prospect for.
Ditka's Biggest Steal: Manning at 13. Say what you want about the follies of taking a QB early - the reality is that Manning is off the board by the 8th pick in almost any scoring format. Ditka had to be elated to have him as an option when he went 12,13.
Ditka's Biggest Reach: I'm tempted to punt on this one. Ditka was the only manager that really didn't reach at all with his picks. You could say that Baltimore's D/ST was a reach in the 6th, but I'm sure that someone would have made the same pick just after him if he hadn't taken them. Bush at 12 is pretty consistent with what is happening in most drafts at this point. Ditka pretty much let the players come to him in this draft.
Revenge of Ginger:This is a very interesting draft. Ginger made some highly controversial decisions, but his starting lineup is solid. He's also one of a few that went RB,RB with his top 2 picks. If neither pick busts, he should be very consistent.
Ginger's Strengths : Running back, which follows since he did go RB,RB with his top 2. I'm not sold on Willis this year, but he could have a nice season if he stays healthy and that old (but quality) offensive line in Baltimore holds up. Gore could put up monster yardage numbers this year, but I see him as a huge injury risk. Betts .. well, see below.
Ginger's Weaknesses : Injury risk. He's got brittle players at every position. WR depth - Plaxico and DJax are decent receivers, but he doesn't have the pop of some of the other teams at this position. Basically nothing to back them up, either.
Ginger's Biggest Steal: I don't know if I can label it a steal at the 101st pick, but I like the Cutler pick a lot. He's a huge sleeper this year. The Denver offense could be dynamic, and I could see Cutler being Ginger's starter before too long...
Ginger's Biggest Reach: Do I even need to comment?
Texas Terminators:For some reason I thought he was present at the live draft... there seemed to be a longer delay before his picks than other autodrafters.. Anyway, this was an autodraft. Like all the autodrafts, it ended in a pretty darn solid team.
TT's Strengths: He's potent at every position. McNabb is a killer when he's healthy. Owens is going to put up
Big Numbers. Johnson has the potential to be top fantasy player this year, and Thomas Jones is a very nice RB2.
TT's Weaknesses: Poor depth at every position. His high upside starters are also injury risks in my mind. Jones is already knicked up. TT might be that fancy sports car that looks real hot one week and then spends the next month in the shop...
TT's Biggest Steal: 27th is too late for Jones in my mind. I think he's a second-rounder.
TT's Biggest Reach: Randy Moss at 46. Of course, he probably wouldn't have made that pick himself, so I can't really blame him. Still, I wouldn't want Moss until the 8th round at the earliest, given that he hasn't even broken a sweat this Summer so far...
Brookwood Bobcats:Brookwood was present for at least his first two picks, and then let the autodrafter algorithm take over. I think it might have been guided by his own rankings for at least the next few rounds. Like the other autodrafters, he was plagued by early kicker picks in the later rounds. He should be able to get some value back from the wire, but might have missed out on some prime breakout candidates.
Brookwood's Strengths: Consistency. His top guys are all money in the bank: Brady, Johnson, Alexander, Driver (sounds like he's fine). I like it.
Brookwood's Weaknesses: No depth at running back. Cadillac might be a bust (again). Alexander and Driver are both coming off of injuries.
Brookwood's Biggest Steal: 52 is pretty late for Driver. If he really is going to recover from his injury by week 1, that will be great value. Driver is one of the most underrated players in the league.
Brookwood's Biggest Reach: The Miami defense in the 7th round???
The Omega Threes:Odd team name, what is it from? I think Brian drafted in person, but he was silent if so. Knock that shit off. I want to hear some serious smacktalk from you this year, Rodriguez. Throw us a bone. Brian's "perhaps manual draft" produced good talent and one glaring weakness : Running Back. I agree with my brother that Omega might be 3WR most weeks - especially if Edwards catches fire this year.
Omega's Strengths : Great wide receivers, and incredible depth at the position. This might be what you'd term a "do the opposite" draft, but it really wasn't in our league - wide outs got plenty of love in our draft. Harrison and Evans are a great 1-2 punch, and Edwards is an awesome playmaker to have at WR3. I'd probably use him as my flex play on most weeks if I was Omega. His other big advantage is Gates, who will allow him to own opponents at TE most weeks.
Omega's Weaknesses : Running back. He's a Westbrook injury away from being dead in the water, and Westbrook is no iron man. Kevin Jones is an inch away from the PUP depending on which day you read the sports page, and Taylor has a better player clamoring for his touches.
Omega's Biggest Steal: I already picked on Chester Taylor a little, but 103 is a ridiculous spot to be getting a starting RB on a team with a great offensive line. HUGE steal that might save Omega's butt at the most crucial position in fantasy football.
Omega's Biggest Reach: A kicker in the 7th and the Seattle defense at 90 - okay, that seals it, this had to have been an autodraft... Let's put the autodraft algorithm aside. I think Rivers at 55 is way too early. I'm pretty sure he could have had him a couple rounds later, and he definitely could have gotten about the same production at QB in the 8th round or so.
Say My Name!:His name is Korwin. This was an autodraft and I think it used the default prerankings. The result is a perhaps solid team full of question marks. If all of his top picks realize their true potential this year, SMN is going to have a good fantasy season. He's also got the potential to fizzle and sink to the bottom of our league if it springs leaks and can't keep his team afloat.
SMN's Strengths: Hmm, he's deep at running back, that's good. Bulger should be light's out this year with all of the weapons in St. Louis.
SMN's Weaknesses: His top two picks are far riskier than everyone else's in my mind. I've been burned hard by Denver running backs in the past, as have some of you I'm sure. If Henry fumbles one too many times, you can bet that he'll drop down the depth chart. Henry is also more of an injury risk that people are creditting for this year. Brown hasn't even been named the starter on his team, so there's plenty of risk there too...
SMN's Biggest Steal: It's a tie - Foster at 107 and White at 110. Two starting running backs in the 100's?!! How did this happen?
SMN's Biggest Reach: I'll lay off the obvious autodraft reaches at kicker and defense. I think Brown is a reach in the 2nd round given the situation with the Miami offense this year. He's not even named the starter right now.. 'nuff said.
Theisman's Tibia:
The defending champ, and he got a sweet draft position this year to boot. Jackson has as much upside as any player in fantasy this year, so he has to be happy with that selection. As we learned during the draft, he luuuuuuuuuvs running backs. This was a good year to have a running back fetish in our league, because they slipped past the mid-rounds to an unbelievable degree. I think this pattern is going to really benefit some managers that selected backs in later rounds as great "value picks," but I can sort of understand why it happened. When you get past the first 14-15 running backs, they just aren't "sexy picks" any longer. It's much more fun to pick a stand-out wide receiver or a good defense. Still, the chances are high that some of the running backs that slipped to later rounds will out-score the receivers, tight ends, defenses, etc. that went before them in our draft.
Theisman's Strengths: I was about to call him TT, but then I realized that we have two TTs this year. Oh well. Theisman's strength is obviously running back, where he loaded up big time. He's going to be a little more bullet-proof to injuries than most other managers, as running back is the hardest position to replace from the waiver wire if a guy goes down. Hey look, Portis might already be down!
Theisman's Weaknesses: QB. Leinart is a risky guy to have as a QB1. He's also high upside, however, so it could all work out fine for him. You know that Leinart is going to be throwing the ball alot as the Cards try go stay in games. His receivers are as good as any in the league. I think I'd rather have him as a QB2 behind someone on a better team (maybe Rivers?) if I'd used Theisman's strategy. However, QBs were popular in our league and this is about as good as he could have done.
Theisman's Biggest Steal: I'm going to go with Peterson just based on pure upside. He should have gone a little sooner. Running behind that big line in Minnesota, he could put up huge numbers if he finds a way to pass Taylor on the depth chart. Even in a time-share, he'll get a lot of touches as a starter in Minnesota. Tavaris Jackson and the Vikings passing game is nothing special, and I think with that tough defense that Minnesota is just going to run the ball (sort of like the Jaguars).
Theisman's Biggest Reach: Portis with the 23rd pick was ill-advised. He's got a backup that might be better than him anyway, and Portis is barely practicing right now. At the very least, you MUST get Betts if you select Portis. Of course, he could have never foreseen that someone would reach for Betts in the third round (??). Still, this could be a collosal bust of a pick, and you don't want to do that with your 2nd rounder.
Atomic Jake:This is one of the top 3-4 drafts. He's solid, and has depth at all positions.
AJ's Strengths: It's tough to pick a particular area because he's so balanced. I think running back is still his greatest strength, which you'd expect from a draft that went RB,RB.
AJ's Weaknesses: I might say quarterback, but I expect Romo to be fairly solid here. This could be the one position where AJ's draft falls through, however, if Romo comes out weak and Big Ben does not bounce back statistically this year. I expect neither to happen, but there is some risk here.
AJ's Biggest Steal: No contest, it's Jamal Lewis with the 88th overall selection. Folks, this is a feature tailback that has virtually no danger of losing goal line touches. Cleveland's offense was nothing special last year, but Lewis could be the steal of the entire draft if they find a way to move the chains consistently. There is a lot of talent on that offense, and there's no way he should have slipped this far.
AJ's Biggest Reach: This is easy - Calvin Johnson with the 40th overall selection in the draft. I know he's all-universe athletically, but if you look at what rookie wide receivers have done historically, this is way too high to be taking one. CJ is perhaps the one guy in the past decade or so that has a chance to buck that trend, but the most likely scenario has Atomic getting Jerricho Cotchery type numbers out of slot where he could have taken a proven commodity like Boldin.
Jupiter's Crown:This is another one of the top drafts. The line on drafting out of the first position is this: Take LT and play it safe after that so you don't mess it up. I'd say that he did better than just shoot par after taking LT.
Jupiter's Strengths: His starters are very potent. He's got a good mix of break-out candidates and proven performers coming off down years, statistically. Like the other better drafts, his strength is balance and depth.
Jupiter's Weaknesses: He's silent. I'm serious Steve, if you're going to come in this league and kick people's butts like you did to most folks in this draft, it's time to make some noise and interact with us. Talk some smack. This silent treatment has me feeling seriously self-concious. Are you seeing other Leagues behind my back???
Jupiter's Biggest Steal: I love the Johnson and Branch picks. I think both will outperform the draft positions where he got them.
Jupiter's Biggest Reach: I'm tempted to say Edge, but he's going around where JC took him in most drafts. I'm not a fan, however, and think he'll be disappointing again. I personally think that Norwood at 48th was a big-time reach now that Warrick Dunn is named the starter in Atlanta. Norwood definitely has upside, but that's a dicey situation to be spending that high of a pick on.
Cheeto-Maker:This was an autodraft with the default prerankings. Again, we see a team with decent starters and no depth due to the autodrafter algorithm's decision to take tight ends, defense, and kickers in the mid-rounds. He should be okay if he makes some good management decisions to trim the obsolete players he got, but Willy? (will he - get it?).
Cheeto's Strengths: He's got a potent, balanced starting lineup. Kitna was awesome value with the 65th overall pick. He's going to put up nice numbers in that Mike Martz offense, and should outperform several of the QBs taken before him.
Cheetah's Weaknesses: Depth. As in, he has no depth. Injuries strike, and he could be done FAST.
Mo-Cheeto's Biggest Steal: None, he let the computer make all of his picks and didn't even change the prerankings. Booooooo. Okay, fine... I would say that his biggest (computer-aided) steal was Kitna at 65th overall. I guess I already said that. I bore myself...
Cheeto-Maker's Biggest Reach: I'm not even going to waste time on this - it's obviously what the autodrafter did (Graham 89th overall? Was that a flushing noise I just heard?).
Football Team:Ben was with us for about the first 10 rounds. I like this team alot, it's balanced and should be pretty consistent. Rudi Johnson and Wayne are two of the most consistent guys in fantasy football over the past few years.
Football Team's Biggest Strengths: Balance and consistency. He's got a good mixture of "known quanitities" like Johnson and Wayne with potential break-out candidates like Benson and Young. If those guys really do perform the way they're projected to by many "experts" (not a lock), he'll be a force.
Football Team's Biggest Weakness: Let's set aside his putrid team name. Actually, let's not set it aside. This team name sucks. Beyond the awful and uninspired team name, his greatest weakness is potential instability at QB. The Titans did virtually nothing to improve the supporting cast around Young this year, and he could be stifled early and often this season. Alex Smith is another guy who's yet to really break out. I do think that the upside with Young is great, however, so it's not a bad risk.
Suck-Name's Biggest Reach: I don't think Pittsburgh's Defense warrants a 7th round selection. After Chicago and Baltimore, I think you wait until the last few rounds to take a D/ST.
No-Name's Biggest Steal: Ahman Green 91st overall. He's the feature back on a team, that means he's a 6th round pick at the very, very least. This could end up being a huge steal.
That's a wrap. I have to say that the limit on these message board posts is really lame. It took me about 90 minutes to type all of this, but I have to split it into four posts? Laaaaaaame. Come on, Yahoo.
Secondly (and more importantly), we're free of the Greg Oden and Kevin Durant sweepstakes this year. Things just got silly with teams tanking to position for last year's draft lottery. I remember reading Boston Celtics fan boards and seeing them cheer for the team to lose in January. Celtics fans rooted for the Grizzlies last year. Entering 2006, Greg Oden was the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James *and* he was the Holy Grail of basketball - a dominant center. Kevin Durant was having one of the best seasons in the history of college hoops. I think having two different types of prospects in the same class: a dominant center and a potential media darling, did more than double the hype - it was more like an exponential effect. There was something in it for everyone - a Duncan, a LeBron. The chances of getting the top pick in the draft lottery is slim, but the chances of getting in the top 2 picks seems somewhat less desperate.
