I'll go ahead and preface this post by declaring that I'm a lifelong Portland Trailblazers fan. Coupled with the fact that I've made my home in Seattle, things have been very exciting for ol' JetCity since the NBA Draft lottery on May 22nd. I attend at least 5 Sonics games or so a year (always making it to the Portland games at the least), and I've developed some attachment to the Supersonics franchise. I'll always be a Blazers fan first and foremost, but I was very happy to see the Sonics land the 2nd pick in this potentially historical draft. Here's to hoping that landing a mega-star will save Seattle's chances to keep the franchise...
I work at a major software company here in Seattle, and I wore my Brandon Roy jersey to work on the day of the draft lottery. I had this feeling that something special was going to happen, and I got a few knowing grins from folks around the office. Knowing I wouldn't get much done at work if I stayed, I drove home early to watch the draft lottery coverage (jumped on the exercise bike and turned on ESPN). I nearly fell off that thing when it was clear that Portland was in the top 3, and proceeded to call friends and family in a frenzy during the commercial break. My brother didn't believe that Portland had actually won the draft lottery until I held the cell phone up to the television so he could hear a cheerful Brandon Roy discussing it with ESPN's reporters...
It's been an interesting month to say the least... To many basketball purists (myself included), the path for Portland has been crystal clear since that #2 envelope was opened. However, newly annointed Portland GM Kevin Pritchard's wheeling and dealing in last year's draft, plus a well-received workout for Kevin Durant from the Blazers (and correspondly ho-hum one for Oden), has led to speculation as to where the Blazers will go with their #1 pick. I suppose that's as good of segue as I can muster for the mock draft, so here we go:
#1 The Portland Trailblazers select...
Greg Oden. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see my favorite team end up with Kevin Durant. The kid looks like an absolute stud, and his skill levels are unheard of for someone so young. He's so good that the most hyped big man prospect since Tim Duncan is not a lock for the #1 pick in the draft. That's incredible! Those of us who really follow college and professional basketball have been talking about Greg Oden for at least a couple years. While Durant has also been on the radar, he only started being mentioned in the same breath with Oden after his absolute ownage of the Southwest conference was well underway.
While Durant has certainly made a case for being selected #1 in the NBA draft, Oden hasn't done enough to dissuade basketball scouts from heralding him as the next great big man to enter league. That's just not something any GM can justifiably pass up, even one that's riding a massive wave of good fortune and success in Kevin Pritchard. While Pritchard may feel invincible, I'm sure he knows in the back of his mind that he'd be risking his all-time reputation with Portland fans and NBA laureates by passing up on Oden. Oden also seems like the better fit in a Portland environment. He's affable, humble, and seemingly undeterred at the idea of making a smaller market his home. Indeed, the feeling is apparently mutual as Oden's quirks and temperment have already endeared the Portland faithful. This seems like a marriage destined for success, and I expect Portland to make Oden their man on June 28th.
#2 The Seattle Supersonics select...Kevin Durant. No ambiguity here, the Supersonics have been playing the waiting game since May 22nd. Portland is really selecting for two teams in this lottery - Seattle need only take the stud that the Blazers pass up on. Durant will be the franchise's new face, and future starting SF. This will most likely necessitate a trade of Rashard Lewis, who's natural position is also the 3. There's been some talk that the Sonics will try to keep Lewis and adapt Durant to the 4. Don't expect this, as Durant is far too slim to match up with NBA power forwards (while we're at it, a glance at his slight frame should raise concerns about his ability to hold up against NBA small forwards...).
I digress, but there is no doubt that the Supersonics will take Durant if he falls to them, and then set about building the franchise around this incredibly talented wingman...
#3 The Atlanta Hawks select...
Al Horford. The Hawks have been the big question mark in this draft for weeks... I personally wanted to come up with a mock draft earlier, but decided that it was a fruitless effort due to my inability to gauge what Atlanta would do with their pick.
The pick that made the most sense after the lottery was Mike Conley Jr. Atlanta has needed a point guard for years, and has taken an enormous about of flack for passing up on names such as Chris Paul and Deron Williams in earlier drafts. Other strategies that they've tried and failed with are : 1) Starting Joe Johnson, a natural 2, at point guard. 2) Signing Speedy Claxton, a career backup point guard, to a starting point guard's contract. 3) Prospecting on starting point guards in the second round (Royal Ivey)... 4) Drafting shooting guards in point guard bodies (Salim Stoudemire)... need I continue? To many of us, it seemed that the time had come to bite the bullet and draft that pure point guard, and that "pointed" squarely to Mike Conley Jr.
Fast forward to the past two weeks, when I believe that Conley Jr. began destroying his draft stock by displaying his lack of a shooting touch in workouts for various NBA teams. I still think that he might be the correct fit for the Hawks based on their needs, but perhaps the team has another plan to fill the spot. At any rate, I'm almost certain that they've decided to grab the best player available with the third pick (which they have probably correctly identified as Horford) and then either select Acie Law at spot #11 or deal that pick for a veteran NBA point guard if he's gone.
#4 The Memphis Grizzlies select...
Joakim Noah. This is another point where I believe things were very cloudy until just recently. However, it's my belief that Noah will be the pick here. Like Conley, his draft stock has seen a drastic shift as players have worked out for different NBA teams. In Noah's case, the workouts been a boon as he's impressed teams with his work ethic, defense, and "passion" (I haven't heard a player's "passion" cited as a huge intangible so many times before.. Is it Noah and his bad dancing and skinny-chest beating, or are the rest of these guys just zombies in person?).
It could very well be that the Grizzlies will trade this pick. If that happens, I still think Noah will be the player selected fourth overall. Workouts scheduled by Phoenix suggest that they're on the verge of securing a high draft pick, and they're known to be targetting Noah. This is the pick they'd have to trade for if they wanted a sure shot at him. The Grizzlies themselves are interested in Noah, so they might just pick him and keep him.
#5 The Boston Celtics select...
Yi Jianlian. This is the hardest call to make in the lottery, as the Celtics are fairly stocked with young talent at every position. They could use a center, but Jianlian is not going to be a pure center in the NBA by anyone's estimates. In fact, there's question as to whether or not he fits a pure NBA position a
t all. He's not a pure power forward, and he's also not a protypical small forward. He possesses elements useful at both the 3 and 4, so it's more likely he'd slide between those two spots based on matchups, with coaches making the substitutions necessary to compensate for defensive mismatches that he forces on any lineup.Still, Yi is an extremely versatile big man that can contribute immediately, especially on offense. My gut says that he'll be the 5th selection in the NBA draft on Thursday despite being the highest risk/reward prospect on the board. It could be that he never dons a Celtic uniform, as several teams are interested in trading up to get him (especially from cities where he'd be a marketting bonanza. Read: Golden State, Chicago). Celtics GM Danny Ainge also has a track record of making draft day deals, so this scenario seems quite likely indeed. If they decide the risk is too high with Yi, look for the Celtics to take Georgetown star Jeff Green (and proceed to sort out the logjam that this would create for them at the wingman position).
#6 The Milwaukee Bucks select...
Mike Conley, Jr. I believe that this is a no-brainer pick for the Bucks. For one, Conley actually showed the the respect of following through on his workout with the team (unlike other prospects like Yi, who made their distaste for Milwaukee clear by actually cancelling their workouts). Also, Conley's workout for the Bucks was clearly his best. With Mo Williams almost a lock to be lost to free agency, Conley is the rare win-win from a needs-based and talent-based perspective. By my estimates, he makes it no further than the Bucks on draft day.
#7 The Minnesota Timberwolves select...
Corey Brewer. This pick is a marriage made in heaven. The T-Wolves have been looking for a SF for a few years now, their defense is atrocious, and Brewer has the moxie and attitude that they've been trying to pair with KG for some time. With respect to their disgruntled star, this could be too-little, too-late, but I believe that KG will wear the T-Wolves uni for at least one more season. Brewer is the right piece to put in the starting five anchored by Garnett. Coupled with the rumors that GM Kevin McHale has a man-crush on Brewer, this seems like a pretty safe prediction should Brewer make it past picks 4-6.
#8 The Charlotte Bobcats select...
Brandan Wright. The Bobcats should be thrilled to see Wright on the draft board at this point, as he's potentially the third best player in the entire lottery. The 'Cats are another team that doesn't need to get any younger, so there's a chance that they'll deal this pick. If Yi or Noah has slid to this slot, expect the Bobcats to be scrambling to answer the phone and field offers. Given my predictions for picks 1-7, it seems likely that they'll take Wright (although they'd probably prefer Brewer if he's there). Wright could immediately step in and anchor the frontline along with Emeka Okafor (he still plays, right?). Besides Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, no other player in the draft class has a higher ceiling in the pros...
#9 The Chicago Bulls select...
Spencer Hawes. Go ahead and review pretty much every draft lottery, and you'll see that the big men have historically gone earlier than projected in nearly every one. My take on it is that teams at the end of the lottery are often undecided or dismayed after losing out on players they hoped would slip to them, and thus default to taking the rare commodity (true centers). In this draft, I think Spencer Hawes is going to be the latest in this club to hit the jackpot on draft day. I think he knows it's going to happen too, as he'd likely be in the top 5 picks if he stayed at the University of Washington and entered next year's draft.
The Bulls are going to be disappointed on Thursday. They want Noah, but his soaring stock puts that out of reach (and they almost had him locked up, too). Yi would be a great fit, but he's not going to slip to the 9th slot unless they're extremely lucky. Since Boston is similarly non-plussed, we could see a draft day swap between these two teams. Assuming that doesn't happen, I think they'll default to Hawes. With his soft shooting touch and passing skills, he does fill some needs for the Bulls.
#10 The Sacramento Kings select...Acie Law. They'd love to get Hawes, who is most often compared to Brad Miller and would fit well into the Kings offensive schemes. They'd also like to get Noah, who'd help them erase some of the defensive holes that have plagued them for years now. However, I expect both big men to be gone.
With Bibby aging and occasionally asking out of Sacto, Law seems like the needs-based pick. He's also quite likely the best player left, so I expect them to pull the trigger. To really put the icing on it, Law has professed that the Kings are his favorite team. I feel pretty safe about this prediction if my earlier picks turn out correct.
#11 The Atlanta Hawks select...
Jeff Green. What a mess for the Hawks, who are going to have their hearts broken when Law goes one pick earlier if my prediction holds. Obviously, I don't think Green will play for the Hawks, who already have a horrible logjam at the 3. Still, I think this is where Green or Al Thorton get selected in this draft, so my crystal ball has the Hawks trading this pick to someone who's interested in one of those two players. In return, they'll receive a point guard. Who? I'm not sure, but there's been rumors that they've talked to the Trailblazers about Jarrett Jack. I don't think he's enough to get this pick straight up, so other players would have to be involved. The Blazers would undoubtedly love to add Green or Thorton to their young mix of talent, and they're in need of a SF. If not them, other teams should step forward. As Green's stock seems slightly higher than Thorton's at this point, I went ahead and gave the 11th slot to him. Thorton should follow, so...
#12 The Philidelphia 76ers select...
Al Thorton. Wow, what a score for the Sixers. Thorton might be a meaner version of Shawn Marion, which should put goosebumps on the backs of Philly fans. They need .. well, everything, so they'll take the best player here. I think that's going to be either Green or Thorton.
#13 The New Orleans Hornets select...
Nick Young. This is going to turn out to be a great pick for the young Hornets. I really like Young, who's versatile, plays defense, runs the court, and really does everything pretty well. Heck, take Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy and put him in this year's draft class, and he's possibly vying with Nick Young to be this pick. Young should jump right in and help the Hornets, who need a guard.
#14 The Los Angeles Clippers select...
Javaris Crittenton. Why is he not invited to sit in on the draft? Seems odd, as he's seemed a likely target of teams as high as #6 in the lottery at different points since May 22nd. He's worked out for pretty much everyone, but pretty much all signs are indicating that his stock has taken a slide as a result of that. Crittenton might be missing a few too many jumpshots in his drills for teams, that's my guess. Regardless, he's a pure point guard prospect and he's got the physical tools to be a great defender at the 1... The Clippers have the ancient Sam Cassell (he plays what.. 20 games a year now?) and a hobbled Shaun Livingston holding down that spot, so they're almost certainly taking a point guard. I think it's going to be Crittenton, who figures to enter the league with a massive chip on his shoulder after being left at home on draft day...
#15 The Detroit Pistons select...
Rodney Stuckey. Somebody knows something, as Stuckey has been asked to the draft day party while more-touted prospects have been left at home. They're in need of help at the guard position with Carlos Delfino recently shipped out of town. This is pure guesswork at this point, but I'll go ahead and slot him as the Piston's pick.
- Jet out
(Images- Greg Oden : AP Photo, Kevin Durant: AP Photo, Joakim Noah: AP Photo, Yi Jianlian: AP Photo, Corey Brewer: AP Photo, Acie Law IV: AP Photo, Nick Young, Brandon Roy: AP Photo)
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