Portland's '07-'08 Record: Top 10 Variables

Jet here,

I'm just brainstorming here, but I see these as the top 10 variables determining the Blazers record next season (in order of importance):

1. Coaching. I believe that the off-season moves are basically done. The result is one of the youngest squads in the league, and one of the most inexperienced. I think it's on the coaches now. Nate has to be the big time coach that we hired him to be. Lucas has to work with the big men. Hopefully useful assistants like Williams will stick around. I believe that the biggest factor determining our record will be how well this coaching staff molds the young talent on this team.

2. Brandon Roy's health. He's by far the most crucial player on this team right now. There's a great deal of depth on the front line, and a bevy of point guards. Brandon's only real backup is Martell Webster, who hasn't proven reliable. If Brandon can log starter's minutes for 75+ games in his sophomore year, this could be the necessary condition for the team to crack 40 wins...

3. LaMarcus Aldridge's health. He looks primed for a huge breakout and everyone is talking about it now. He'll be the one to step up and fill the void left by Zach in terms of scoring. There's a lot to be concerned about with regards to his injury history, however.

4. Greg Oden's health. Same story here. Oden is the unique player on the front line. If Aldridge was injured, Frye could step in and play a similar role. There's no replacement for Oden, however. I look at the bigs on this team - they all have the potential to play soft. Oden is what compensates for that.

5. Greg Oden's learning curve. Even if he's healthy, he might be on the bench in foul trouble. The sooner he learns to stay out of it, the sooner the Blazers start winning close games.

6. Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster "between the ears." These guys both have head issues, but they're both young. Their developing (or not developing) confidence and basketball skills are a huge variable.

7. Frye, Outlaw, Jones, Webster, Blake, Jack, Sergio content as role players? The core is Roy, Aldridge, and Oden. Are these other guys content to exist in time-shares, or do they believe they need to start? This is huge.. probably higher than 7. The team will only have good chemistry if these players become comfortable with their roles...

8. Defense at the PG position. I was really worried about this when I was sure that Jarrett Jack was gone. He could still be gone, so the variable remains (but I think it would be top 5 if he was traded away). Inability to stop penetration by point guards is just going to exacerbate the foul problems for Oden, as demonstrated in the Summer League games....

9. Darius Miles & Medical Retirement. I guess this one goes off the list soon, because he'll either do it or he won't.

10. Ime Udoka. It's almost a lock that he's gone with the roster the way it is now. However, if he lasted on the market a little longer, and Miles decided to retire... starting to reach now. Udoka is a veteran leader who provides perimeter defense and outside shooting. That pretty much sums up exactly what the Blazers need most. If he was kept, it would add at least 5 wins imho.

-Jet out

(Images : Nate McMillan huddles Trailblazers during '06-'07 season : AP Photo, Channing Frye : AP Photo)

Vegas Summer League, On My Computer...

Jet here,

Well, I just got done watching 3 out of 4 of the Summer league games on my computer. It was surprisingly good quality on the video and audio feed, and I even had some decent commentary thanks to the NBA League Pass guys. It was a good watch while I finished up my Friday's day of work at home, and then did a workout in my home gym/office/storage-room (need... house...). I'm considering buying NBA League Pass this year, it seems like a pretty smooth operation.

Anyway, on to the games. I missed the Philly/San Antonio game, won by the Sixers 65-61. The first one that I did catch was the Dallas/Seattle game. This was the Kevin Durant debut, of course, but the scrappy Mavericks stole the show. I was impressed with Maurice Ager first and foremost - this kid can really get up. Durant shot poorly for the game, only 5-17 from the field. Still, he dazzled with a variety of moves on the low-post and high-post. He also showed some range with a nice-looking three point stroke. I think he was a bit tight for his debut, and who can blame him? Durant may have shot a low percentage, but almost all of his shots were good looks. Make no mistake, this kid is going to be an absolute scoring machine. With Allen and Lewis both gone from Seattle now, I think we could see the highest scoring rookie since Allen Iverson. He should be the prohibitive favorite for Rookie of the Year going into '07-'08.

The second game that I caught was the Memphis Grizzlies versus the Chinese National Team. This Chinese team has played together for some time, so you'd think that this would be a blowout. Not so! The young Grizzlies have a wealth of impressive young athletes. Lowry, Kinsey, Anthony Johnson, Mike Conley (didn't start, but checked in late in the first quarter) were all very active. They terrorize ball handlers and then outrun the poor Chinese team on the break. It was very fun to watch.

However, the absolute standout in the Memphis/China game was Rudy Gay. This kid showed it all in his '07 Summer League debut. He stepped back and stroked jumpers. He spread out like an albatross and flew in for monster jams. And, he absolutely owned Yi Jianlian (who is an impressive young player himself) in the first half of this game. In the highlight of the game, Gay goes baseline and does a 180 degree turn underneath the rim to finish with a two-handed monster jam on Yi. With that 22 emblazoned on his back, I would have thought I was watching a young Clyde Drexler on that move. I think there's only a handful of athletes in the world that can make that move, and Gay made it look easy. This game provided us with perhaps a glimpse of *the* breakout player for the NBA 2007-2008 season (there was another candidate on display today as well.. keep reading). As for China, I thought that both Wang and Yi looked very solid. Yi has a nice touch on his jumper for a big man, and he has some quick moves on the baseline. I saw flashes of stardom for him, and Milwaukee was absolutely right on taking him with the 6th overall pick. Even if he shuns them, there's going to be a lot of suitors for Yi via trade if they decide to give up on wooing him to Milwaukee.

Finally, I got to watch Greg Oden's debut in the Trailblazers/Celtics game. This was the final match of the day, and possibly the most hyped. Oden looked a step slow in this game, but I believe that the Blazers were the most hampered by poor guard play. Sergio Rodriguez, the starting PG for the Portland Summer League team, was an absolute turnover machine. On defense, Rodriguez and Martell Webster were beaten badly by the Celtic guards on most possessions, forcing Oden to take fouls. Gerald Green looked good in the early part of the game, blowing past Webster on several possessions.

This was billed as the Oden show, but the guy who impressed the most on Portland was LaMarcus Aldridge. He was everywhere on both ends of the court, and he displayed a fantastic shooting touch from as far as 19 feet out. Portland has to be giddy after seeing this sort of play from Aldridge, who should be able to dominate offensively with Oden drawing attention in the low post. Like Gay, I think we could be seeing a preview of a huge breakout star in '07-'08. If Aldridge can hit his jumper as consistently as he displayed in this game, Blazer fans will forget about Zach Randolph in a matter of a few games. As for Oden, he needs to get over his sinus infection, settle down his nerves, and get some more help from his guards. I saw some glimpses of how dominant he can be. On one play, he nearly ripped down the hoop with a two-handed dunk. He'll be unstoppable when he gets the ball in close to the rim. On defense, he had a highlight block on Leon Powe where his hand seemed to be three feet above the rim...

That's a wrap. I think we're going to see better performances from both Kevin Durant and Greg Oden before the Summer League season is up, especially Durant. He'll loosen up and score over 30 points - probably in his next game. Virtually all of his looks were good, and he'll get them at will. If today is a good indicator, Gay and Aldridge will emerge as the All-Stars of the Summer League in Vegas, and could be NBA All-Stars very soon as well.

- Jet out

(Images - Kevin Durant: Garrett Ellwood, NBA/E via Getty Images, Rudy Gay : Garrett Ellwood, NBA/E via Getty Images, Greg Oden, Maurice Lucas, and LaMarcus Aldridge: Casey Holdahl, The Oregonian)

NBA Eastern Conference : Does anyone have a plan here?

Jet here,

The NBA off-season thus far has featured several moves by Eastern Conference GM's that signal a "win now" mentality: but what exactly will they be winning? The rights to be the next sacrificial lamb sent to almost certain embarrassment at the hands of the next Western Conference Champions? Let's start with a trade that I've beaten to death in this blog: The Knicks improved themselves on paper for the upcoming season, but does anyone really think that a team anchored by Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph is going to hoist the Championship Trophy sometime in the next four years?

With perhaps one or two notable exceptions, moves made by Eastern GM's have the feel of desperation strikes at the Finals, a sort of "well, let's get there and see if a miracle happens"-type shot in the dark... Let's look at some of the other trades and free agent signings that we've seen over the past month:

1) The Celtics deal Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, and the #5 pick in the 2007 draft for Ray Allen and a 2nd round pick (Glen Davis).

Like the NY/Portland trade, this should add some wins next year. Will it propel the Celtics to the Finals? I say that's a long shot in even Danny Ainge's most optimistic dreams. If they somehow made the Finals, would they beat a San Antonio, Phoenix, or Dallas? In 3-4 years, when Al Jefferson is potentially entering his prime, the 32-year old Allen will be seeing significant fall-off. A level-headed critique of this move will predict mediocrity at best for the Celtics. They may well indeed reach the playoffs, but they won't win a Title and they'll be even less likely to get a franchise player out of future drafts.

2) The Charlotte Bobcats trade the draft rights to Brandan Wright to the Golden State Warriors for Jason Richardson. Shortly thereafter, they sign Matt Carroll to a 6 year, 27 million dollar deal:

I found these moves equally odd. The Bobcats are still young, and I actually liked the Wright pick for them. He needs a couple years, but he could be a stud PF to anchor their frontline along with Emeka Okafor. Instead, they tie themselves to a brittle Jason Richardson, one of the streakier scorers in the league. Then, they turned around and made a long term commitment to a guy who plays his exact same position in Matt Carroll. They'll undoubtedly be better next year as a result of the Richardson deal, but the upside is much less than if they'd kept Wright. I think this is another example of an Eastern GM trying to seize the day, but at the same time locking the franchise into years of par-level play.

3) The Orlando Magic agree to terms for a max deal with SF Rashard Lewis:

Lewis was hailed as the top commodity on this year's free agent market, and that should tell you how weak the crop of free agents is this summer. Lewis is a nice scoring forward, but he's not worth max money. He can shoot well from outside, which will complement Dwight Howard's blossoming inside game. He's a poor defender and rebounder, however, and the Magic will have a tough time accommodating those weaknesses now that they've tied up so many resources in acquiring him. This criticism standing, I still see this as one of the better off-season moves so far. Lewis is still relatively young, and Howard is just entering his prime. Good move, I just think they overpaid. It will take some clever GM'ing to make the final leap to a championship contender.

4) The Nets sign Vince Carter to a four year, 62 million dollar contract with an option for a fifth year:

I think this was a no-brainer. The Nets weren't able to move Kidd last year, and watching the Cavaliers make their way to the finals this year was only added fodder for an argument to keep Kidd and to try to make a stab at a championship now. Kidd's game doesn't rely on leaping ability, speed, or quickness. I think he has at least 3 good years left, so bringing back Carter was the right choice. This is a lot of money for Vince, who's no spring chicken himself, but I see Carter as a bona-fide superstar that could propel the Nets to a championship if they can put together a run to the Finals. The Nets had some bad luck last year with injuries in the front court (particularly to their promising young center, Nenad Krstic). They should be competitive for the Eastern crown this season.

5) Quietly, the Toronto Raptors sign Jason Kapono to a four year, 24 million dollar deal:

I like it. Wait a second, signing Jason Kapono was the best FA move so far this off-season? Jason Kapono???!!! Hey, this guy was probably the best three point specialist in the league last year, and he'll fit right in on a Raptor squad styled after International play. I think this is just the latest example of Brian Colangelo earmarking and nabbing his perfect role-player. The Raptors are building a team around Bosh's inside game and sharpshooters on the perimeter, and Kapono will fit in perfectly with that scheme. Finally, here's an Eastern GM with a plan.

And with that, I think I understand Colangelo's desire to leave the Suns and go out to Toronto more and more. Look at the poor management he's competing with out East... It only took him a season to have the Raptors right in the hunt for a trip to the Finals, and I think we won't have to wait long to see them put up an Eastern Conference Championship banner. I'm not sure if they're good enough to beat the likes of San Antonio, Dallas, or Phoenix in the Finals, but they do have young players who haven't neared their ceilings yet.

Other than Colangelo, I'm seeing a lot of muddled decision making out of Eastern managers. In desperate moves to win right away, I think they stunt their chances to actually compete for a Title down the road...

- Jet out

(Images - Jason Richardson : AP Photo, Vince Carter: NBA/E Getty, Brian Colangelo: Frank Gunn, Canadian Press)

Eastern Migration : Go East, Old(er) Men

Jet here,

The current NBA landscape reminds me of our country's youth, but reversed. Talent is crowded to one side, and wins are hard to come by if you're rubbing elbows with juggernauts named San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, and ... Portland? Well, not in the immediate sense perhaps, but it might not take long for the upstart Trailblazers to blossom into the next great force in the West. And what about the Seattle SuperSonics? They're up to something for sure - they've stashed away the League's next prolific scorer and they roped in another stud (Jeff Green) to boot. Is this the next dynamic NBA duo? Green has all the skills to be a Pippen-esque Robin to Durant's Batman. Sonics GM Sam Presti is a smart man, and I can see a high-scoring, fleet-footed Sonics core coalescing here in the Emerald City (Jet City, if you're nasty). In a few years, they could be running teams off the court the way the Golden State Warriors did the top-seeded Mavericks in this year's NBA playoffs.

Is this increasing returns? The rich get richer, and the poor go hungry? This particular draft lottery certainly didn't tip the scales, and whiney Eastern GMs who bet the farm on the handful of ping pong balls might have you thinking that way... However, the league has other checks and balances that are now evening out the League in the wake of the draft. For players seeking greener pastures, the frontier is now the East. They might not be leaving in covered wagons, but make no mistake - players know that they can reap greater rewards for their hard work if they're facing weaker competition. And as the Cleveland Cavaliers proved this year, they also might just land on the biggest stage in basketball...

The draft didn't even need to complete for the balancing effects to begin. Before it had even begun, word was out that the SuperSonics were working on packaging their soon-to-be-former franchise player, Ray Allen, for Boston's 5th pick (Jeff Green). Allen is 32, but is coming off a career season in terms of averages. He'll make an immediate and huge impact in Boston. A bit later, we learn that Portland is shipping out the embattled Zach Randolph to New York in order to make room for its new twin towers, Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. Any big man capable of putting up 23-24 points and 10 rebounds amongst the tall trees of the West is sure to wreak havoc in the East; the scales tip back a little further. Jason Richardson joins the migration East only hours later, shipped to the Bobcats for a package including UNC's young big, Brandan Wright.

The NBA free agency season kicked off this week with a few big names already tied to teams in the ... East. Rashard Lewis has reportedly agreed to terms with the Orlando Magic, while Chauncey Billups appears to be staying in Detroit (even though he's denying the report that he signed a new deal with them, it looks like he'll ink something with the Pistons soon). Gerald Wallace should be the next domino to fall, with 8 teams or more competing for his services. With Orlando's cap room now completely locked up by Lewis (for years, and years, and years...), it seems most likely to me that Gerald Wallace will remain a Bobcat.

All of this should put a damper on the cask-sized sluice of whine we saw after the Trailblazers and SuperSonics won the top 2 picks in the draft lottery in May. Munching on the sour grapes of Eastern GM's, analysts, and fans, you'd think that the draft lottery is the only way a team can improve in the NBA. The changes that we've seen since the draft show that this is far from the case. Trades and Free Agency will help to balance the league in the short and long term. Teams eyeing Portland as a rising power will choose to rebuild (Seattle), and in doing so they will most likely trade their veterans to the East (so they won't be seeing them all the time in a different uniform). Players who can choose their own destiny will be attracted to the East, where their stats and chances of making the NBA Finals will be improved. Teams in the East that don't decide to go for the Finals while the "gettin' is good" will land back in the lottery, where the odds are still in their favor to land a top pick.

I expect to see some more big names heading East in the near term. Teams in the West that appeared close to competing, pre-draft, must now choose to either strengthen themselves in order to compete with current Super Powers (San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix), or begin rebuilding for the future - a landscape likely to be defined by rising powers in the NW. As the true difference makers begin disappearing from the free agent market, I suspect a few more teams will opt to rebuild. These events should send a few more talented veterans to the East.

That's a wrap,

- Jet out

(Images - Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis : Jeff Reinking, NBA/E, Zach Randolph : Getty Images)