Fantasy Hoops 2007: The Crossroads Between Two Seasons

Jet here,

I've been meaning to write this blog entry for a while, a review of what happened in the 2006-2007 Fantasy Basketball season. For those who participated until the end, it should be remembered as the most chaotic fantasy season ever, a true roller coaster with huge stars going down every week during the most important part of the season. For those of us who are back at it again for 2007-2008, the question looms: will we go through the same wild ride again? I believe that the answer is "not quite," and I will detail why.

As a stalwart in fantasy hoops, I like to believe that good management and some ingenuity can overcome any amount of randomness in a fantasy season. 2006-2007 put that belief to the test, as this manager personally lost big names like Dwayne Wade, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett while fighting down to the last day for a 10-team league title. I watched as a dominant team began to fall apart in March, feeling like I was watching a rocket break apart as it tried to reach orbit... If only enough of my team core could stay intact, perhaps I could make it all the way until the end. The ending was not a happy one for me, as I lost to a worthy opponent on the last day of the championship round with victory right within my grasp. While the ending was not one I would have written, the mere fact that I had a shot to win at the end proves that fantasy hoops is predictable enough to navigate even the most chaotic season with resourceful management decisions.

On the fantasy basketball related message boards that I peruse, I've already seen some posts to the tune of "are we going to go through this again"? During the worst part of the injury meltdown last year, I came up with some hypotheses as to why things were so bad. There are some variables that still hold, such as the participation of star players in International basketball competition over the Summer. However, there are two major factors that won't hold. The more subtle of these is a change in mentality for "bubble Playoff teams" after the Warriors successfully rocked the Mavericks last year. Throw in the fact that a mediocre Cavaliers team managed to come out of the East, and you can imagine that teams outside of the top tier will see more value in making a March playoffs push rather than packing it in with an attitude of "why bother, we can't beat the big 3 or 4 teams."

Secondly (and more importantly), we're free of the Greg Oden and Kevin Durant sweepstakes this year. Things just got silly with teams tanking to position for last year's draft lottery. I remember reading Boston Celtics fan boards and seeing them cheer for the team to lose in January. Celtics fans rooted for the Grizzlies last year. Entering 2006, Greg Oden was the most hyped draft prospect since LeBron James *and* he was the Holy Grail of basketball - a dominant center. Kevin Durant was having one of the best seasons in the history of college hoops. I think having two different types of prospects in the same class: a dominant center and a potential media darling, did more than double the hype - it was more like an exponential effect. There was something in it for everyone - a Duncan, a LeBron. The chances of getting the top pick in the draft lottery is slim, but the chances of getting in the top 2 picks seems somewhat less desperate.

This year's draft class has nothing to compare to Oden or Durant. Fans on bad teams will console themselves with talk of OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose in March, but I don't think they'll be biting their nails and rooting for losses in January over the next ballhog scoring guard. The big injuries will happen, but I don't think we'll see them on the same scale this fantasy basketball season.

-Jet out